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hanna93
February 16th, 2015, 07:49
Hi, long time lurker here but hoping to start posting more!

Here is some math that could be reassuring. :^_^:
I saw on the Interviewee List for the US there were 1882 numbers (hopefully I counted the rows and whatnot correctly). That includes people who applied for both ALT and CIR positions.
I think we can rest assured that at least 915 people will be chosen to be ALTs (this is the number of 5th years + the difference between the other years = predicted number of people who will leave this year. Also, the number of 1st year US ALTs in 2014. Makes sense).

From the Interviewee List number (1882) we could subtract:
-32 CIR's last year, so at least this many will for sure become CIRs and thus those who applied to become ALTs don't need to worry about them
-At least 50 people didn't even go to their interviews? (guess)

That already cuts the number down to 1800 interviewees at the minimum and makes the minimum chance of acceptance at least 50%. The rest is speculation but I assume there were also people had never read anything about the interview process and were thus overwhelmingly unprepared, or people who had a shallow interest in going to Japan or no interest in teaching and this came off in their interview, or people that got an important culture-appropriateness question wrong? *more speculations*

What do you guys think? And, if you have any ideas, what points do you suppose they judge our interview based on?

I'm so surprised many people could say "I had a really great time at my interview" "I had some fun conversations with my interviewers" "I think it went really well!", but then again maybe I'm just really harsh on myself.

ambrosse
February 16th, 2015, 11:38
You know, I'd like to think statistics are all sunshine and rainbows, but as the game gets more competitive, more people actual do the research. The people in the waiting room in Chicago all seemed pretty well-rounded and ready to interview. Granted, half of them were applying for CIR, but many expressed interest in the ALT position as a backup.

I do believe a 50/50 chance is a fair assumption.
You'd also need to take into account those shortlisters who decline the position and pass on the chance to alternates.

I thought my interview went well despite my mistakes, but doubt is flooding in. Maybe it's my competitive nature, but those who I've met that interviewed all seemed perfectly capable of doing well in the interview. Although I can't discount those who are calm and collected in the waiting room and then totally screw themselves over while sitting in the hotseat.

It's a flip of the coin. A flip of the coin.

uthinkimlost?
February 16th, 2015, 11:44
You could have taken an online Statistical Analysis course in the time it took you to do this/crunch the numbers.

It isn't random in a real sense, and it isn't 50/50 for you if you have your sh#t together.

word
February 16th, 2015, 11:49
It's a flip of the coin. A flip of the coin.

All our lives hang by a thread! Now we got a man waiting for sentence... But ain't it the truth: you take your chances with CLAIR! Acceptance is only a roll of the dice... a flip of the coin... a turn... of The Wheel.


http://www.phactual.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/a69.jpg

Zolrak 22
February 16th, 2015, 11:54
Underworld!
Underworld!
Underworld!

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 11:54
It's not the same everywhere. The rumours for the consulate through which I applied were that there were 1,000 initial applicants. 40 or so ended up being shipped off to Japan.

We also had 4 days worth of interviews with multiple panels. It was a pretty big affair.

BeckyJones
February 16th, 2015, 11:57
Umm.... Why don't you spend (presumably) your last few months of college having fun and getting wasted instead of wasting your time with statistics that have zero impact on your being accepted into the program.

or better yet, start looking for other alternatives, in the case that you do not get accepted.

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 11:59
BJ's right. Have some fun and get ready for the possibility that you won't be accepted into Jet.

weepinbell
February 16th, 2015, 13:37
Umm.... Why don't you spend (presumably) your last few months of college having fun and getting wasted instead of wasting your time with statistics that have zero impact on your being accepted into the program.


This is the only piece of advice I will be/have been following and that's as a college grad haha....

Yeah also, I totally agree with looking to alternatives. I already have one lined up, and while I'll be pretty sad if I don't get JET, the main thing for me is having an immersive experience in Japan. While JET obviously holds high standards, other programs can still offer a similar experience. Having a backup is a huuuge weight off of me right now.

hanna93
February 16th, 2015, 13:58
Maybe it's my competitive nature, but those who I've met that interviewed all seemed perfectly capable of doing well in the interview. Although I can't discount those who are calm and collected in the waiting room and then totally screw themselves over while sitting in the hotseat.


^ I was thinking this too when I went for my interview (also Chicago).
I can imagine having a backup would take a lot of the tension off! As for me, I'm still in the process of applying and/or waiting to interview for backups.
I still kind of wonder why JET had the application deadline and interviews much earlier this year though, and if that means anything about which direction the Program is headed.

itsabird
February 16th, 2015, 16:28
None of you guys are getting in. They don't want ITIL nerds and dweebs on the JET program...............................................

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 16:40
They've learned through experience.

itsabird
February 16th, 2015, 16:41
They've learned through experience.
;)

Zolrak 22
February 16th, 2015, 17:21
Having them over think this is raising my chances. [emoji38]

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 18:33
Unless the Jet boards are looking for applicants who over think things.

Zolrak 22
February 16th, 2015, 19:27
Unless the Jet boards are looking for applicants who over think things.
I'd like to think that being paranoid never helped anyone. Not in the end.

Which is why I tend to be "zen" about everything.

(Or at least appear to be on the surface).

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 19:28
It's not paranoia is when people are plotting against you.

Zolrak 22
February 16th, 2015, 19:30
It's not paranoia is when people are plotting against you.
You are right, what with half the newbies trying to find my real identity [emoji14].

Next thing you know, I'll have a few vans parked near my house. [emoji75]

haitch40
February 16th, 2015, 20:07
You are right, what with half the newbies trying to find my real identify [emoji14].

Next thing you know, I'll have a few vans parked near my house. [emoji75]
Vans? Bushes and binoculars are all I need.

johnny
February 16th, 2015, 20:08
Make sure that when you're done that you clean up your hiding spot. You don't want to leave any evidence.

ambrosse
February 17th, 2015, 06:05
You are right, what with half the newbies trying to find my real identify.

We'll know soon enough. See you in Tokyo, yo!

Kyle
February 17th, 2015, 11:08
I think it varies depending on where you apply. In Australia we obviously have less applicants and less people chosen for JET (i think around 120 JETs last year) so it is still hard to try and estimate what % of applicants who got interviews will get a placement. I'm not sure of the ratio of interviews to applicants accepted but I'm guessing it's 50%+ and i feel like my chances are not too bad. The interview seems a bit different and easier here too - we didn't have to do a mock lesson in our interview and it was basically just a relaxed informal conversation with no difficult questions. Now just watch me get rejected hahah. Just try and get on with your life and not dwell on it.

MikeCarter
February 17th, 2015, 11:40
Odds are different everywhere, yeah. Canada let in 180 last year (I believe). The Toronto location had 5 people interviewing at once, and making some estimations, they probably could interview about 60 people a day. That over 3 days that location alone would be 180.

Then take into consideration there is 4 other locations as well. At the very worst odds for Canadians should be about 1 in 4, but Toronto is the biggest location for interviews, and based on what we've heard there should be more ALTs going this year than last.

Lots of variables though. I went the first day, and for all I know they did the most interviews on that day and slowed it down after that. Then there's the fact that the other locations are smaller and likely interviewed less people.

In the end we just have to wait and see. Really dislike how long it takes for them to make the decision. I have a feeling it has more to do with collaborating with all the different countries than actually taking time to decide who should go though.

Gizmotech
February 17th, 2015, 14:42
Canada sent well over 200 the year I came. Looking at years for average enrollment is sorta pointless, it will change from year to year and from situation to situation.

I mean hell, I've been here 4, goin on 5, and I've seen/heard of more than one Canadian who bailed after a year (or less)

Zolrak 22
February 17th, 2015, 15:12
We'll know soon enough. See you in Tokyo, yo!
Eh, I'll find yours before then.
One way or another, count on it. [emoji6]

par92186
February 17th, 2015, 15:37
Pretty sure there's always one person every year with some math or stat degree that breaks dance the "chances of acceptance" to the nearest hundredth of a decimal point. In the time that it took you to compile your fact sheet and type it online you probably wasted 94.03958405 beers you could have drank and vomited up.

Don't worry yourself with stats guys and gals. Just go in there confident, handle your business, walk out, and go buy yourself a congratulatory beer!

uthinkimlost?
February 17th, 2015, 15:42
Pretty sure there's always one person every year with some math or stat degree that breaks dance


www.youtube.com/watch?v=UB9X2FaLTdw

par92186
February 17th, 2015, 15:52
hahaha i didnt even see i got autocorrected. not even going to edit it either. leaving it in all its glory.

JET ProgramCoordinator SF
February 19th, 2015, 02:32
In the past it might have mattered what Consulate you interviewed at, but for the last couple of years we're all on the same system, so applying at one Consulate doesn't increase or decrease your chances.

We usually have about a 30% acceptance rate from the initial application pool. How many we accept past the interviews can vary much more greatly as it's dependent upon how many spots Tokyo needs to fill that year. If a lot of JETs leave Japan in a given year, there will be more people accepted, and vice versa. We also have X number of shortlisters decline their position every year (due to grad school, other job offers, etc.) and whenever a shortlister declines their position we upgrade an alternate. That number is hard to predict as well.

johnny
February 19th, 2015, 08:53
You heard it from an authority guys. Spend your last few months in uni trying to get drunk. If you have spare time, try to find a summer job and do some school work slackers.

JestersJ
February 24th, 2015, 04:12
I found some statistics on a website a few days ago... wish I remembered what website...
but I think it was done with 2013 year that it was about 43% who are offered interviews are accepted into positions. This isn't minusing out the factor of people rejecting the interviews or just not showing up. I think every year it kinda plays around that number, this year it seemed closer to about 47%.

johnny
February 24th, 2015, 18:40
This whole process is pointless.

Zolrak 22
February 24th, 2015, 18:42
This whole process is pointless.

Word, but what are you gonna do? [emoji28]

If it helps them settle their nerves and pass the time then good for them.

johnny
February 24th, 2015, 23:22
Word, but what are you gonna do? [emoji28]

If it helps them settle their nerves and pass the time then good for them.

Yeah, fair enough.

hiddenlee22
February 25th, 2015, 02:30
People acting crazy about the process? Where were you people 2-3 weeks ago!?

My two cents on the stats, I don't think people should be looking at it as: "oh, I have a 50/50 shot of getting in". The selection isn't arbitrary. If there are 900 spots available and 1800 interviewees, you would have score higher than 900 people.

Also from what I've gathered from the "higher-ups" on this site, unless you really dropped-the-ball with your interview e.g. showing up with your parents, looking like a slob, or just not speaking, you have a decent shot (even as crappy as my interview was, I don't think I did THAT bad)

darfurorphan
February 25th, 2015, 02:39
Also from what I've gathered from the "higher-ups" on this site, unless you really dropped-the-ball with your interview e.g. showing up with your parents, looking like a slob, or just not speaking, you have a decent shot (even as crappy as my interview was, I don't think I did THAT bad)
Does this seriously happen?

Swmrgrl
February 25th, 2015, 06:44
eg. Showing up with your parents
A girl showed up with her Dad while I was waiting for my interview. She went in for her interview and I spent the entire 30 minutes talking to her father. I'm not sure that the Consulate Staff even noticed that she came with him, however, so I don't know if that would play a part in their hiring decision.

ambrosse
February 25th, 2015, 07:13
A girl showed up with her Dad while I was waiting for my interview. She went in for her interview and I spent the entire 30 minutes talking to her father. I'm not sure that the Consulate Staff even noticed that she came with him, however, so I don't know if that would play a part in their hiring decision.

I think it's more the type of person who needs their parent/family member/significant other to come with them to an interview that's the problem.

Swmrgrl
February 25th, 2015, 07:35
Agreed. If you can't go to a job interview alone, how are you going to go to a foreign country alone? But I don't think the interviewers noticed who people came with, so they wouldn't know who came with their parents and who didn't.

ambrosse
February 25th, 2015, 07:42
Agreed. If you can't go to a job interview alone, how are you going to go to a foreign country alone? But I don't think the interviewers noticed who people came with, so they wouldn't know who came with their parents and who didn't.

Maybe the type of person who brings their parents with is hesitant, needy and immature. It's entirely possible that those people have crappy interviews.

Edit: I had a friend with me, but that was only because both of us were interviewing!

patjs
February 26th, 2015, 04:22
You never know who might notice...

If it were me, I'd have serious reservations about someone that shows up to an interview with one or more family members.

mrcharisma
February 26th, 2015, 10:57
Maybe the type of person who brings their parents with is hesitant, needy and immature. It's entirely possible that those people have crappy interviews.

Edit: I had a friend with me, but that was only because both of us were interviewing!

I'm sure you pair screeching out anime quotes and reciting dull anecdotes about part-time work went down a treat at the consulate.

ambrosse
February 26th, 2015, 11:06
I'm sure you pair screeching out anime quotes and reciting dull anecdotes about part-time work went down a treat at the consulate.


Oh you bet!
I even rented a mascot suit and danced around a bit to prove to my panel that I was fun enough to be an ALT!

mrcharisma
February 26th, 2015, 11:17
Oh you bet!
I even rented a mascot suit and danced around a bit to prove to my panel that I was fun enough to be an ALT!

If you want to get in the mindset for ALT "fun" before July I'd recommend you spend your weekends harassing orphans for a photo op or drinking heavily in your apartment, alone.

ambrosse
February 26th, 2015, 11:19
Noted.

Zolrak 22
February 26th, 2015, 13:54
Ohhh sounds reasonable enough.