Fun With Numbers - Acceptance Rates

[Masada]

So I know that from searching, there has always been an "acceptance rate" question or post here on these forums in just about every year and while some of them seem encouraging, none of them really source hard numbers so I thought I would take a stab at it since I had already pulled some information from previous research into the JET Program.

From what I gathered in various sources were that most orientations tend to give the numbers: ~5000 Applied and ~1200 were selected which lands in the 24% range.

I wanted to break it down a little further and see if I could use some sourced numbers.

Amount of Applicants:
Most posts I've read concerning this say there are typically 5,000 to 5,500 applicants per year. I do not know if this number is strictly related to the USA or not. For this post, we will be pessimistic and say 5,500.

Amount of Accepted Applicants:
Source: http://www.jetprogramme.org/document...et_stats_e.pdf
From 2012 you can see that total applicants for ALTs were 1406. In the USA the number is 790. According to the ~5000/~1200 rate, it would seem those figures are based on world wide applicants. However, being the pessimist that I am, we will continue to use the 5,500 applicants for USA only.

Amount of Interviews:
Source: http://www.us.emb-japan.go.jp/JET/pd...Candidates.pdf
From this, take a standard page (2-7) and you see 36 Rows, 6 Columns, and for again, being a pessimist with our numbers, assume 8 full pages. Total Interviews: 1728 (Keep this in mind, we have no idea if this is USA only or worldwide.)

Putting the Numbers Together

Assuming all information is world wide: 5500 Applicants, 1728 Interviews, 1401 ALT's
Chance for Interview (1728/5500): 31% Interview Rate (See Note b.)
Chance for Hire (1406/1728): 81% Acceptance Rate (This does not seem accurate, so see below)

Assuming all information is USA specific (Using USA 1 Year Alts of 790):
Chance for Interview (Still 1728/5500): 31% Interview Rate (See Note b.)
Chance for Hire (790/1728): 45% Acceptance Rate

Final notes:
a.) Safe to assume that ~5,500 is a world wide figure for applicants. Take 1406 World Wide Applicants and divide by a somewhat accurate USA 45% Acceptance Rate and you can assume that 3113 applicants are USA Applicants.
b.) Assuming that 3113 applicants are USA applicants (1728/3113): 55% Interview Rate
c.) Checking The Math: So with this information we have two percentages: 55% Interview Rate, 45% Acceptance Rate. Formula: .55*.45=.2475 or 25% Total Acceptance Rate. Our estimate from the beginning was 24%.

So, while dealing with this agonizing wait in finding out if you are to be short-listed/alternate keep in mind that if you made it to the interview process, you probably have a ~45% chance of getting accepted.

I hope this helps anyone with anxiety over this whole process! I know I had a lot of fun just doing the math involved!

[Randomgirl]

Wow.

Can you do that again for Canada please?!


RG

[Masada]

The numbers shouldn't differ for any other country. I only needed 1 country to establish the base percentage. The JET Application is score based and it is the applicant that is hired, not the applicant's country. Your personal score is outside the formula. This is just an idea to give you your chances based on what round of the application you made it to!

Just consider this. If 40% to 45% of the applicants who make it into the interview phase are hired, and you feel good about your interview, then try not to stress too badly! You already greatly increased your odds of acceptance from ~25% to ~45% just by getting an interview. Me personally, I feel good enough about myself knowing I made it to the interview. If I get in then, WOOHOO! If I don't? I'll be sad but, at least I know I had a chance to show the people who went through my application who I was and why I felt I should go.

Quick Math
USA Population: 313 Million
CAN Population: 34 Million

USA
3118 Applicants/313 Million = .00001%
CAN
34 Mil*.00001%=340 Applicants ---- 151 Accepted for Canada in 2012 151/340 = 45%. Still the same rate of acceptance in the interview stage. No bias based on country in JET :-D

[Randomgirl]

My brain is fried looking at that! Interesting - it makes sense, but I always thought the ratio for us would be different!

Thanks!
RG

[Shelia]

Somehow a 55% interview rate doesn't sound right in my mind, I would imagine they cut off a lot more applicants at the paper stage as opposed to granting interviews to every other applicant.

[Masada]

Not sure, I've heard the figure go as high as 73% interview rate. 55% is an average amount over all applicants in the world. An Embassy may interview 80% of their candidates and 60% of those may get hired. That's because the actual hiring is based on a score system. Another Embassy may only interview 40% of Applicants and only 10% may get hired. The numbers are very broad so keep in mind that 55% Interview, 45% Hire deserves a big fat * because those figures can easily be +/- 5 for the average, and even worse on an individual Embassy scale.

Keep this in mind too. To make the system feel fair, all applications are originally sent to DC, sorted through, and sent to the Embassy's for interviews. After that, your interview is sent to Tokyo, and redistributed in the form of hiring. The percentage on an Embassy could be really high or really low, depends on the applicants.

[LaVie]

These statastics would only really mean anything if getting into JET was based on chance and not on ability.

[Teishou]

For the group of 2012-2013, we had an 18% acceptance rate.

[Gizmotech]

Acceptance rates vary by year rather drastically, the number is entirely meaningless.

[johnny]

The rumours out of Vancouver were 150 interviews with fewer that 40 accepted.

[lil]

The rumours out of Vancouver were 150 interviews with fewer that 40 accepted.

Where did you hear this rumour from? O_o

[Randomgirl]

Was that last year? I know they sent 42 last year (or thereabouts).

[Moso]

The numbers shouldn't differ for any other country. I only needed 1 country to establish the base percentage. The JET Application is score based and it is the applicant that is hired, not the applicant's country. Your personal score is outside the formula. This is just an idea to give you your chances based on what round of the application you made it to!

Just consider this. If 40% to 45% of the applicants who make it into the interview phase are hired, and you feel good about your interview, then try not to stress too badly! You already greatly increased your odds of acceptance from ~25% to ~45% just by getting an interview. Me personally, I feel good enough about myself knowing I made it to the interview. If I get in then, WOOHOO! If I don't? I'll be sad but, at least I know I had a chance to show the people who went through my application who I was and why I felt I should go.

Quick Math
USA Population: 313 Million
CAN Population: 34 Million

USA
3118 Applicants/313 Million = .00001%
CAN
34 Mil*.00001%=340 Applicants ---- 151 Accepted for Canada in 2012 151/340 = 45%. Still the same rate of acceptance in the interview stage. No bias based on country in JET :-D

Where did you get the applicant number from? Because looking at the numbers of accepted applicants in the document in the OP, it would seem that Canadians have double the chance of getting into JET than UK applicants! Seeing as the UK population is around double the Canadian population, yet almost the same number of accepted applicants it would seem that UK applicants have a lower chance of being accepted, unless there is also a dramatically lower amount of applicants. (Again, I don't know where you found the number of applicants from). But anyway, hopefully it's going to be based mostly on our personal application rather than country

[kbui]

These numbers make me so excited!

But the initial acceptance rate of 25% seem awfully low, since I've seen a couple JETs on here and they're... let's say, not 25% material. I've seen arbitrary acceptance rates of ~70% on different forums, but that seems really high also. I don't understand why JET makes their applicant number and acceptances so mysterious. We're just trying to understand our chances on a statistical perspective!

[AVN]

These numbers make me so excited!

But the initial acceptance rate of 25% seem awfully low, since I've seen a couple JETs on here and they're... let's say, not 25% material. I've seen arbitrary acceptance rates of ~70% on different forums, but that seems really high also. I don't understand why JET makes their applicant number and acceptances so mysterious. We're just trying to understand our chances on a statistical perspective!

It wouldn't be very useful either way because getting into JET is not based on chance...

[Gizmotech]

Where did you get the applicant number from? Because looking at the numbers of accepted applicants in the document in the OP, it would seem that Canadians have double the chance of getting into JET than UK applicants! Seeing as the UK population is around double the Canadian population, yet almost the same number of accepted applicants it would seem that UK applicants have a lower chance of being accepted, unless there is also a dramatically lower amount of applicants. (Again, I don't know where you found the number of applicants from). But anyway, hopefully it's going to be based mostly on our personal application rather than country

You are correct. It is easier to get in from one of the colonies than the homeland.

These numbers make me so excited!

But the initial acceptance rate of 25% seem awfully low, since I've seen a couple JETs on here and they're... let's say, not 25% material. I've seen arbitrary acceptance rates of ~70% on different forums, but that seems really high also. I don't understand why JET makes their applicant number and acceptances so mysterious. We're just trying to understand our chances on a statistical perspective!

The "evaluative" feel of jets who have made it onto the program basically dismiss any of these statistics. Some are right terrible, some are excellent. Some jets look good on paper, others who might be excellent don't. Many mess up their interviews quite badly.

It's really all over the place and the numbers don't actually help.

Also, as to their secrecy? Welcome to japan and enjoy your stay.

[johnny]

Where did you hear this rumour from? O_o

One of our group asked the alumni jets who were part of interviews panels. The guy was told about 150. By the time we departed, about 40 were sent. Some me people got upgraded later, so that number may now be larger.

Anyway, to the best of my knowledge, the interview acceptance rate for some consulates is actually below 33%. That's not to say you should lose hope or feel discouraged. The fact is that no one knows what the acceptance rates will be out of any city. I just think the numbers change from consulate to consulate and you can't estimate acceptance rates across a continent using last year's numbers.

[par92186]

It wouldn't be very useful either way because getting into JET is not based on chance...

^ this for sure. However, I think Masada is making the general assumption of "all things equal, this is how your odds look". Definitely interesting though.

[Jedirust]

Did you know 78% of statistics are made up on the spot 90% of the time.


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[Ercasse]

Let's not forget that that you also need to factor in what the COs themselves request in a JET. The scoring is of course really important - the outstanding candidates are probably going to be Japan bound. But if you are a middling candidate in a big pool of middling candidates then what COs have requested is going to change the numbers too. If a lot of COs want young American women from Portland who studied Japanese, I'm sorry 29 yo male for Texas who did mechanical engineering, if your scores are the same the Porland girls are going to Japan.

I honestly wonder if the numbers discrepancy between the homeland and the Canadian colonies has more to do with how many COs request Canadians vs. how many want UK JETs. Maybe Canadians are more popular in some regions and the data is therefore lopsided?