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Thread: Chances of being accepted?

  1. #1
    Junior Member hanna93's Avatar
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    Default Chances of being accepted?

    Hi, long time lurker here but hoping to start posting more!

    Here is some math that could be reassuring.
    I saw on the Interviewee List for the US there were 1882 numbers (hopefully I counted the rows and whatnot correctly). That includes people who applied for both ALT and CIR positions.
    I think we can rest assured that at least 915 people will be chosen to be ALTs (this is the number of 5th years + the difference between the other years = predicted number of people who will leave this year. Also, the number of 1st year US ALTs in 2014. Makes sense).

    From the Interviewee List number (1882) we could subtract:
    -32 CIR's last year, so at least this many will for sure become CIRs and thus those who applied to become ALTs don't need to worry about them
    -At least 50 people didn't even go to their interviews? (guess)

    That already cuts the number down to 1800 interviewees at the minimum and makes the minimum chance of acceptance at least 50%. The rest is speculation but I assume there were also people had never read anything about the interview process and were thus overwhelmingly unprepared, or people who had a shallow interest in going to Japan or no interest in teaching and this came off in their interview, or people that got an important culture-appropriateness question wrong? *more speculations*

    What do you guys think? And, if you have any ideas, what points do you suppose they judge our interview based on?

    I'm so surprised many people could say "I had a really great time at my interview" "I had some fun conversations with my interviewers" "I think it went really well!", but then again maybe I'm just really harsh on myself.

  2. #2
    Senior Member ambrosse's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    You know, I'd like to think statistics are all sunshine and rainbows, but as the game gets more competitive, more people actual do the research. The people in the waiting room in Chicago all seemed pretty well-rounded and ready to interview. Granted, half of them were applying for CIR, but many expressed interest in the ALT position as a backup.

    I do believe a 50/50 chance is a fair assumption.
    You'd also need to take into account those shortlisters who decline the position and pass on the chance to alternates.

    I thought my interview went well despite my mistakes, but doubt is flooding in. Maybe it's my competitive nature, but those who I've met that interviewed all seemed perfectly capable of doing well in the interview. Although I can't discount those who are calm and collected in the waiting room and then totally screw themselves over while sitting in the hotseat.

    It's a flip of the coin. A flip of the coin.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    You could have taken an online Statistical Analysis course in the time it took you to do this/crunch the numbers.

    It isn't random in a real sense, and it isn't 50/50 for you if you have your sh#t together.
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  4. #4
    Feckless Manchild Otaku word's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by ambrosse View Post
    It's a flip of the coin. A flip of the coin.
    All our lives hang by a thread! Now we got a man waiting for sentence... But ain't it the truth: you take your chances with CLAIR! Acceptance is only a roll of the dice... a flip of the coin... a turn... of The Wheel.


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    It's festivals days like these on which I really try really hard to make up for not partying in college.
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  5. #5
    The Sun's Bird God..what? Zolrak 22's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Underworld!
    Underworld!
    Underworld!

  6. #6
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Chances of being accepted?

    It's not the same everywhere. The rumours for the consulate through which I applied were that there were 1,000 initial applicants. 40 or so ended up being shipped off to Japan.

    We also had 4 days worth of interviews with multiple panels. It was a pretty big affair.
    Last edited by johnny; February 16th, 2015 at 11:56.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

  7. #7
    Pimpin wenches aint easy BeckyJones's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Umm.... Why don't you spend (presumably) your last few months of college having fun and getting wasted instead of wasting your time with statistics that have zero impact on your being accepted into the program.

    or better yet, start looking for other alternatives, in the case that you do not get accepted.

  8. #8
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    BJ's right. Have some fun and get ready for the possibility that you won't be accepted into Jet.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by BeckyJones View Post
    Umm.... Why don't you spend (presumably) your last few months of college having fun and getting wasted instead of wasting your time with statistics that have zero impact on your being accepted into the program.
    This is the only piece of advice I will be/have been following and that's as a college grad haha....

    Yeah also, I totally agree with looking to alternatives. I already have one lined up, and while I'll be pretty sad if I don't get JET, the main thing for me is having an immersive experience in Japan. While JET obviously holds high standards, other programs can still offer a similar experience. Having a backup is a huuuge weight off of me right now.

  10. #10
    Junior Member hanna93's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by ambrosse View Post
    Maybe it's my competitive nature, but those who I've met that interviewed all seemed perfectly capable of doing well in the interview. Although I can't discount those who are calm and collected in the waiting room and then totally screw themselves over while sitting in the hotseat.
    ^ I was thinking this too when I went for my interview (also Chicago).
    I can imagine having a backup would take a lot of the tension off! As for me, I'm still in the process of applying and/or waiting to interview for backups.
    I still kind of wonder why JET had the application deadline and interviews much earlier this year though, and if that means anything about which direction the Program is headed.
    Last edited by hanna93; February 16th, 2015 at 14:20.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    None of you guys are getting in. They don't want ITIL nerds and dweebs on the JET program...............................................
    ⊂( ゚ヮ゚)⊃ Okinawa

  12. #12
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    They've learned through experience.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny View Post
    They've learned through experience.
    ⊂( ゚ヮ゚)⊃ Okinawa

  14. #14
    The Sun's Bird God..what? Zolrak 22's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Having them over think this is raising my chances.

  15. #15
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Unless the Jet boards are looking for applicants who over think things.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

  16. #16
    The Sun's Bird God..what? Zolrak 22's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny View Post
    Unless the Jet boards are looking for applicants who over think things.
    I'd like to think that being paranoid never helped anyone. Not in the end.

    Which is why I tend to be "zen" about everything.

    (Or at least appear to be on the surface).

  17. #17
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    It's not paranoia is when people are plotting against you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

  18. #18
    The Sun's Bird God..what? Zolrak 22's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny View Post
    It's not paranoia is when people are plotting against you.
    You are right, what with half the newbies trying to find my real identity .

    Next thing you know, I'll have a few vans parked near my house.
    Last edited by Zolrak 22; February 17th, 2015 at 06:14.

  19. #19
    Weirdest ITIL member. haitch40's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zolrak 22 View Post
    You are right, what with half the newbies trying to find my real identify .

    Next thing you know, I'll have a few vans parked near my house.
    Vans? Bushes and binoculars are all I need.

  20. #20
    Perpetually confused. johnny's Avatar
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    Default Re: Chances of being accepted?

    Make sure that when you're done that you clean up your hiding spot. You don't want to leave any evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ini View Post
    Teach them something new?? Are you mad? All you do in Japan is rehash the same stuff over and over for 15 years. Hello song, what do you like sports? and fruit basket. The holy trinity of English education.

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